NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FGCU MER
Points 68.5 69.5
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 21.5
Points From Free Throws 11.8 10.0
Shooting FGCU MER
Field Goals Made 25.0 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 58.0
Field Goal % 45.2% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 11.8 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 14.8
Free Throw % 68.1% 67.9%
Ball Control FGCU MER
Rebounds 34.5 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.4
Turnovers 10.7 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.7
Steals 5.9 5.9
Fouls 11.6 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FGCU MER
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 67.0
% of Possessions with FGCU MER
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 24.5%
Player Fouled 21.8% 17.3%
Turnover 15.9% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken FGCU MER
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 27.3%