NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU UNCA
Points 70.2 78.2
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 23.9
Points From Free Throws 16.2 18.7
Shooting NCCU UNCA
Field Goals Made 23.7 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 54.5
Field Goal % 41.3% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 16.2 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 24.9
Free Throw % 69.0% 75.0%
Ball Control NCCU UNCA
Rebounds 33.6 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 9.5
Turnovers 10.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.4
Steals 5.6 4.1
Fouls 18.3 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: NC Central

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU UNCA
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 70.0
% of Possessions with NCCU UNCA
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 38.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 29.0%
Player Fouled 21.6% 25.8%
Turnover 14.3% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU UNCA
Shot Blocked 8.1% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 29.4%