NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GASO MORE
Points 68.6 77.8
Total Points   146.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 27.2
Points From Free Throws 12.2 17.0
Shooting GASO MORE
Field Goals Made 24.4 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 55.7
Field Goal % 41.5% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 12.2 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 23.2
Free Throw % 71.5% 73.2%
Ball Control GASO MORE
Rebounds 30.4 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 11.7
Turnovers 10.2 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.3
Steals 6.0 5.7
Fouls 16.4 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GASO MORE
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 70.2
% of Possessions with GASO MORE
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 37.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 29.9%
Player Fouled 19.8% 23.4%
Turnover 14.5% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken GASO MORE
Shot Blocked 7.9% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 35.2%