NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BC PROV
Points 68.1 71.1
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 31.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 26.7
Points From Free Throws 10.8 13.2
Shooting BC PROV
Field Goals Made 25.0 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 56.9
Field Goal % 41.3% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 29.6
2 Point Shooting % 43.6% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 27.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 10.8 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 17.7
Free Throw % 74.4% 74.5%
Ball Control BC PROV
Rebounds 34.5 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.7
Turnovers 9.0 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.8
Steals 5.9 5.4
Fouls 15.1 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Boston Col

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BC PROV
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 67.8
% of Possessions with BC PROV
2 Point Attempt 50.9% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 34.3%
Player Fouled 19.2% 21.8%
Turnover 13.0% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BC PROV
Shot Blocked 6.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 25.2%