NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU SOU
Points 68.0 68.1
Total Points   136.0
Points From 2-Pointers 29.4 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 19.3
Points From Free Throws 20.6 13.9
Shooting NCCU SOU
Field Goals Made 20.7 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 48.1 54.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 30.3 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 20.6 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 29.9 21.4
Free Throw % 69.0% 65.3%
Ball Control NCCU SOU
Rebounds 34.2 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 10.1
Turnovers 13.0 11.7
Blocked Shots 1.6 4.4
Steals 5.0 5.8
Fouls 16.2 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Southern

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU SOU
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 68.3
% of Possessions with NCCU SOU
2 Point Attempt 37.5% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 27.0%
Player Fouled 27.7% 23.1%
Turnover 18.6% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU SOU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 28.7%