NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMER MSM
Points 66.2 70.4
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 10.3 9.6
Shooting AMER MSM
Field Goals Made 23.8 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 54.0
Field Goal % 43.3% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.1 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 10.3 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 13.3
Free Throw % 71.6% 71.9%
Ball Control AMER MSM
Rebounds 29.6 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 8.0
Turnovers 10.5 11.5
Blocked Shots 1.2 3.0
Steals 6.8 5.1
Fouls 13.1 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: American

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMER MSM
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.8 62.9
% of Possessions with AMER MSM
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 27.1%
Player Fouled 19.7% 19.7%
Turnover 15.9% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMER MSM
Shot Blocked 5.6% 2.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 27.0%