NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COPP NKU
Points 57.4 75.9
Total Points   133.3
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 20.9
Points From Free Throws 10.2 16.9
Shooting COPP NKU
Field Goals Made 20.7 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 55.2
Field Goal % 37.6% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 27.7% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 10.2 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 23.1
Free Throw % 72.6% 73.1%
Ball Control COPP NKU
Rebounds 30.3 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.7
Turnovers 16.0 12.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.5
Steals 6.5 10.3
Fouls 16.0 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COPP NKU
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 70.2
% of Possessions with COPP NKU
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 24.9%
Player Fouled 17.8% 22.4%
Turnover 22.4% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 14.4% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken COPP NKU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 35.6%