NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMER GMU
Points 59.1 71.4
Total Points   130.5
Points From 2-Pointers 24.0 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 23.3
Points From Free Throws 9.7 13.9
Shooting AMER GMU
Field Goals Made 20.5 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 49.0
Field Goal % 39.4% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 12.0 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 26.7 28.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 59.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 9.7 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 18.8
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.1%
Ball Control AMER GMU
Rebounds 27.3 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 19.1 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 7.9
Turnovers 10.4 9.7
Blocked Shots 1.4 2.5
Steals 5.1 4.6
Fouls 16.3 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: American

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMER GMU
Total Possessions 62.7
Effective Scoring Chances 60.5 61.0
% of Possessions with AMER GMU
2 Point Attempt 37.2% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 35.1% 28.3%
Player Fouled 22.0% 26.0%
Turnover 16.5% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMER GMU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 29.3%