NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EMU UMBC
Points 72.3 79.7
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.4 44.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 25.5
Points From Free Throws 9.6 9.3
Shooting EMU UMBC
Field Goals Made 28.1 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 67.1 63.1
Field Goal % 41.9% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 45.0 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 57.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 24.3
3 Point Shooting % 29.0% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 9.6 9.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 13.8
Free Throw % 66.6% 67.9%
Ball Control EMU UMBC
Rebounds 37.8 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.3
Turnovers 9.2 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.3
Steals 6.4 4.4
Fouls 13.2 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: E Michigan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EMU UMBC
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 76.0 71.7
% of Possessions with EMU UMBC
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 29.2%
Player Fouled 15.8% 17.9%
Turnover 12.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken EMU UMBC
Shot Blocked 5.3% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 23.9%