NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMER SIE
Points 68.2 61.2
Total Points   129.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 20.2
Points From Free Throws 10.5 10.3
Shooting AMER SIE
Field Goals Made 24.8 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 51.5
Field Goal % 44.7% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 10.5 10.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 15.0
Free Throw % 71.6% 68.7%
Ball Control AMER SIE
Rebounds 31.4 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 9.7
Turnovers 8.6 12.1
Blocked Shots 1.4 2.9
Steals 6.6 3.9
Fouls 13.9 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Siena

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMER SIE
Total Possessions 64.2
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 61.8
% of Possessions with AMER SIE
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 27.4%
Player Fouled 20.9% 21.6%
Turnover 13.4% 18.8%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMER SIE
Shot Blocked 5.7% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 30.0%