NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIN UNCG
Points 70.4 76.5
Total Points   146.9
Points From 2-Pointers 26.5 28.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 35.4
Points From Free Throws 20.9 12.2
Shooting WIN UNCG
Field Goals Made 20.9 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 48.3 59.3
Field Goal % 43.4% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 14.4
2 Pointers Attempted 26.2 27.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 31.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 20.9 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 30.2 16.8
Free Throw % 69.3% 72.8%
Ball Control WIN UNCG
Rebounds 33.0 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 11.9
Turnovers 12.1 10.9
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.6
Steals 4.9 6.9
Fouls 15.2 20.9

Playing Style Advantage: Winthrop

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIN UNCG
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 70.6
% of Possessions with WIN UNCG
2 Point Attempt 32.7% 33.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 38.5%
Player Fouled 30.1% 21.8%
Turnover 17.4% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIN UNCG
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 33.4%