NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BC UNC
Points 69.6 80.5
Total Points   150.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 26.0
Points From Free Throws 10.9 15.6
Shooting BC UNC
Field Goals Made 25.6 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 62.8
Field Goal % 41.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.9% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 10.9 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 20.7
Free Throw % 74.4% 75.4%
Ball Control BC UNC
Rebounds 32.9 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 11.8
Turnovers 8.7 7.8
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.9
Steals 4.2 5.4
Fouls 15.4 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BC UNC
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 75.2
% of Possessions with BC UNC
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 27.6%
Player Fouled 19.5% 21.6%
Turnover 12.3% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken BC UNC
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 31.6%