NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EMU UCSD
Points 66.5 79.0
Total Points   145.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 26.0
Points From Free Throws 8.8 13.5
Shooting EMU UCSD
Field Goals Made 25.7 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 59.2
Field Goal % 44.5% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 58.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 8.8 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 13.1 18.2
Free Throw % 66.6% 74.1%
Ball Control EMU UCSD
Rebounds 30.9 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 9.8
Turnovers 9.6 7.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.6
Steals 3.8 5.9
Fouls 14.7 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: E Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EMU UCSD
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 70.1
% of Possessions with EMU UCSD
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 32.3%
Player Fouled 18.8% 21.6%
Turnover 14.2% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken EMU UCSD
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 29.4%