NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COPP NCST
Points 50.0 83.9
Total Points   133.9
Points From 2-Pointers 24.9 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.0 22.6
Points From Free Throws 10.1 18.5
Shooting COPP NCST
Field Goals Made 17.5 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 56.9
Field Goal % 31.9% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 12.5 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 34.2% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 27.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 10.1 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 25.4
Free Throw % 72.6% 72.6%
Ball Control COPP NCST
Rebounds 27.6 43.3
Rebounds - Defensive 19.6 30.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 12.6
Turnovers 15.0 9.5
Blocked Shots 1.8 4.9
Steals 4.7 9.6
Fouls 15.9 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COPP NCST
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 63.1 73.1
% of Possessions with COPP NCST
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 24.1%
Player Fouled 17.3% 22.6%
Turnover 21.4% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 13.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken COPP NCST
Shot Blocked 8.7% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 39.1%