NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA USU
Points 63.7 78.5
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 18.4
Points From Free Throws 10.0 19.1
Shooting AFA USU
Field Goals Made 22.8 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 49.9
Field Goal % 42.2% 53.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 29.5 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 61.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 10.0 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 26.3
Free Throw % 68.7% 72.5%
Ball Control AFA USU
Rebounds 26.1 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 19.3 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 8.2
Turnovers 11.0 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.8
Steals 5.6 5.7
Fouls 17.5 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA USU
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 62.7 65.9
% of Possessions with AFA USU
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 21.7%
Player Fouled 21.4% 26.1%
Turnover 16.5% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA USU
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 29.9%