NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA BSU
Points 61.1 77.0
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 28.6 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 23.5
Points From Free Throws 10.1 18.1
Shooting AFA BSU
Field Goals Made 21.8 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 49.5 51.7
Field Goal % 43.9% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 25.9 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 39.2%
Free Throws Made 10.1 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 24.3
Free Throw % 68.7% 74.3%
Ball Control AFA BSU
Rebounds 23.9 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 18.4 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 11.1
Turnovers 11.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.5
Steals 5.0 5.3
Fouls 16.0 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Boise St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA BSU
Total Possessions 64.6
Effective Scoring Chances 58.5 66.5
% of Possessions with AFA BSU
2 Point Attempt 36.4% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 33.3% 25.9%
Player Fouled 23.0% 24.8%
Turnover 18.0% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA BSU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 18.1% 37.6%