NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BGSU WKU
Points 74.3 80.8
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 47.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 20.9
Points From Free Throws 16.6 12.5
Shooting BGSU WKU
Field Goals Made 25.5 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 62.8
Field Goal % 42.3% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 44.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 16.6 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 17.2
Free Throw % 72.7% 72.7%
Ball Control BGSU WKU
Rebounds 35.7 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.2
Turnovers 11.6 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.5
Steals 5.9 6.8
Fouls 14.7 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BGSU WKU
Total Possessions 76.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 73.1
% of Possessions with BGSU WKU
2 Point Attempt 43.0% 51.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 21.8%
Player Fouled 21.9% 19.3%
Turnover 15.2% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BGSU WKU
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 23.6%