NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA UNM
Points 63.0 81.0
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 28.5 45.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 18.2
Points From Free Throws 10.4 17.5
Shooting AFA UNM
Field Goals Made 22.3 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 57.8
Field Goal % 41.4% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 29.2 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 10.4 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 24.2
Free Throw % 68.7% 72.3%
Ball Control AFA UNM
Rebounds 27.6 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 12.3
Turnovers 13.1 8.4
Blocked Shots 4.2 5.4
Steals 5.3 7.3
Fouls 15.8 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA UNM
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 62.4 72.3
% of Possessions with AFA UNM
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 20.1%
Player Fouled 20.7% 23.0%
Turnover 19.1% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA UNM
Shot Blocked 9.5% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 37.4%