NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BGSU MICH
Points 71.0 79.7
Total Points   150.6
Points From 2-Pointers 40.2 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 16.8 24.4
Points From Free Throws 14.0 13.0
Shooting BGSU MICH
Field Goals Made 25.7 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 58.4
Field Goal % 41.9% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 40.7%
Free Throws Made 14.0 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 18.4
Free Throw % 72.7% 70.8%
Ball Control BGSU MICH
Rebounds 33.4 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.8
Turnovers 9.1 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.1
Steals 6.5 4.1
Fouls 15.2 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BGSU MICH
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 69.8
% of Possessions with BGSU MICH
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 24.5%
Player Fouled 20.4% 21.2%
Turnover 12.6% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BGSU MICH
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 27.4%