NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UND ISU
Points 58.4 78.5
Total Points   136.9
Points From 2-Pointers 24.1 46.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 18.6
Points From Free Throws 12.3 13.5
Shooting UND ISU
Field Goals Made 19.4 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 59.2
Field Goal % 36.7% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 12.1 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 26.4 42.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.5 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 27.7% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 12.3 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 19.0
Free Throw % 71.7% 70.8%
Ball Control UND ISU
Rebounds 32.8 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 10.0
Turnovers 14.3 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.0
Steals 5.0 9.4
Fouls 14.9 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: North Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UND ISU
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 70.7
% of Possessions with UND ISU
2 Point Attempt 33.1% 54.0%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 20.4%
Player Fouled 21.2% 21.7%
Turnover 20.8% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 13.7% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UND ISU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 30.5%