NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL OSU
Points 79.8 74.2
Total Points   154.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.6 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 17.2
Points From Free Throws 16.5 13.6
Shooting ILL OSU
Field Goals Made 27.9 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 63.3 63.1
Field Goal % 44.0% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 46.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 16.5 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 18.1
Free Throw % 73.8% 75.2%
Ball Control ILL OSU
Rebounds 41.5 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 9.7
Turnovers 7.9 7.3
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.9
Steals 3.4 4.1
Fouls 14.2 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL OSU
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 76.7 73.8
% of Possessions with ILL OSU
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 56.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 20.2%
Player Fouled 22.3% 19.9%
Turnover 11.1% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL OSU
Shot Blocked 6.2% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 34.1% 25.4%