NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL ISU
Points 74.9 73.8
Total Points   148.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 44.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 17.0
Points From Free Throws 17.2 12.4
Shooting ILL ISU
Field Goals Made 24.8 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 63.2
Field Goal % 44.5% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 29.8 47.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 17.2 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 17.5
Free Throw % 73.8% 70.8%
Ball Control ILL ISU
Rebounds 40.2 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 10.0
Turnovers 12.0 6.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.0
Steals 3.9 7.2
Fouls 13.7 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +1.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL ISU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 73.4
% of Possessions with ILL ISU
2 Point Attempt 35.6% 58.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.8% 19.1%
Player Fouled 23.1% 19.5%
Turnover 17.0% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL ISU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 35.7% 26.4%