NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL IOWA
Points 90.7 80.2
Total Points   170.8
Points From 2-Pointers 44.7 48.6
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 16.7
Points From Free Throws 19.3 14.9
Shooting ILL IOWA
Field Goals Made 31.2 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 64.9
Field Goal % 49.6% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.3 24.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 49.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 19.3 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 26.1 19.2
Free Throw % 73.8% 77.4%
Ball Control ILL IOWA
Rebounds 41.6 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 8.5
Turnovers 8.3 6.8
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.4
Steals 4.0 4.6
Fouls 13.9 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL IOWA
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 78.8 75.9
% of Possessions with ILL IOWA
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 58.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 18.5%
Player Fouled 21.3% 18.7%
Turnover 11.2% 9.2%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL IOWA
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 36.3% 22.8%