NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PROV ALA
Points 76.2 83.3
Total Points   159.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 30.3
Points From Free Throws 18.3 15.5
Shooting PROV ALA
Field Goals Made 25.0 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 64.4
Field Goal % 42.5% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.5 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 18.3 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 20.3
Free Throw % 74.5% 76.4%
Ball Control PROV ALA
Rebounds 35.7 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 11.6
Turnovers 11.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.9
Steals 6.2 6.7
Fouls 16.4 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PROV ALA
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 76.6
% of Possessions with PROV ALA
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 30.3%
Player Fouled 24.1% 21.8%
Turnover 14.7% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PROV ALA
Shot Blocked 6.2% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 30.7%