NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PROV NW
Points 69.7 68.0
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 32.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 22.6
Points From Free Throws 15.2 12.7
Shooting PROV NW
Field Goals Made 23.3 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 50.4 58.7
Field Goal % 46.1% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 27.0 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 41.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 15.2 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 16.8
Free Throw % 74.5% 75.6%
Ball Control PROV NW
Rebounds 35.3 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 7.9
Turnovers 12.1 8.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.8
Steals 4.6 7.1
Fouls 15.1 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Northwestern

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PROV NW
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 62.8 68.1
% of Possessions with PROV NW
2 Point Attempt 35.5% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 24.5%
Player Fouled 23.6% 22.1%
Turnover 17.7% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PROV NW
Shot Blocked 5.0% 8.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 21.6%