NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC USU
Points 71.7 65.8
Total Points   137.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 13.4
Points From Free Throws 11.3 16.1
Shooting SMC USU
Field Goals Made 26.9 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 51.4
Field Goal % 44.9% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 13.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 11.3 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 22.1
Free Throw % 67.1% 72.5%
Ball Control SMC USU
Rebounds 38.2 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 5.4
Turnovers 9.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.2
Steals 5.9 5.1
Fouls 17.2 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC USU
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 64.3
% of Possessions with SMC USU
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 18.7%
Player Fouled 20.1% 25.3%
Turnover 13.4% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC USU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 31.9% 16.7%