NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC WIS
Points 71.4 65.9
Total Points   137.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 15.9
Points From Free Throws 10.6 15.4
Shooting SMC WIS
Field Goals Made 26.9 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 52.0
Field Goal % 49.9% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 15.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 10.6 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 20.5
Free Throw % 67.1% 75.1%
Ball Control SMC WIS
Rebounds 34.1 28.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 6.2
Turnovers 9.9 8.2
Blocked Shots 4.0 1.6
Steals 4.9 5.3
Fouls 17.6 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC WIS
Total Possessions 65.6
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 63.6
% of Possessions with SMC WIS
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 20.8%
Player Fouled 20.8% 26.8%
Turnover 15.0% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC WIS
Shot Blocked 3.2% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 19.3%