NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC FRES
Points 78.7 58.2
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.8 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 15.3
Points From Free Throws 10.4 11.1
Shooting SMC FRES
Field Goals Made 30.1 21.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 51.0
Field Goal % 50.4% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 10.4 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 15.9
Free Throw % 67.1% 69.6%
Ball Control SMC FRES
Rebounds 40.5 24.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 19.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 4.7
Turnovers 8.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 5.3 1.8
Steals 5.9 4.7
Fouls 14.6 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC FRES
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 59.5
% of Possessions with SMC FRES
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 21.8%
Player Fouled 19.7% 22.3%
Turnover 13.0% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC FRES
Shot Blocked 3.7% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 40.1% 14.6%