NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC CSU
Points 67.6 62.9
Total Points   130.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 14.8
Points From Free Throws 11.5 13.4
Shooting SMC CSU
Field Goals Made 24.9 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 50.4
Field Goal % 43.6% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 11.5 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 18.0
Free Throw % 67.1% 74.7%
Ball Control SMC CSU
Rebounds 38.3 27.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 4.6
Turnovers 9.1 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.5
Steals 5.2 4.7
Fouls 16.3 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC CSU
Total Possessions 65.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 60.7
% of Possessions with SMC CSU
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 21.8%
Player Fouled 21.4% 25.1%
Turnover 14.0% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC CSU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 15.1%