NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCAR ALA
Points 76.7 87.2
Total Points   163.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 44.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 27.1
Points From Free Throws 16.0 15.6
Shooting SCAR ALA
Field Goals Made 26.6 31.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 62.3
Field Goal % 42.8% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.3 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 16.0 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 20.5
Free Throw % 70.6% 76.4%
Ball Control SCAR ALA
Rebounds 33.9 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 10.7
Turnovers 8.7 8.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 5.8
Steals 4.8 5.1
Fouls 16.3 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCAR ALA
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 74.5
% of Possessions with SCAR ALA
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 28.9%
Player Fouled 22.3% 22.5%
Turnover 12.0% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCAR ALA
Shot Blocked 9.4% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 32.0%