NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCAR ARK
Points 74.6 73.5
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 13.8
Points From Free Throws 16.7 18.0
Shooting SCAR ARK
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 55.5
Field Goal % 42.1% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 16.7 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 23.5
Free Throw % 70.6% 76.5%
Ball Control SCAR ARK
Rebounds 36.7 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 7.2
Turnovers 8.8 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 6.5
Steals 4.3 4.9
Fouls 17.7 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCAR ARK
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 69.4
% of Possessions with SCAR ARK
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 18.3%
Player Fouled 23.2% 24.8%
Turnover 12.4% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCAR ARK
Shot Blocked 11.8% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 21.8%