NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FLA ALA
Points 88.7 94.1
Total Points   182.8
Points From 2-Pointers 45.2 44.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 29.6
Points From Free Throws 22.2 20.2
Shooting FLA ALA
Field Goals Made 29.7 32.0
Field Goals Attempted 66.3 66.6
Field Goal % 44.8% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 44.1 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 22.2 20.2
Free Throws Attempted 30.3 26.4
Free Throw % 73.2% 76.4%
Ball Control FLA ALA
Rebounds 40.0 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 14.1 11.8
Turnovers 9.4 9.8
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.3
Steals 6.7 6.2
Fouls 18.4 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FLA ALA
Total Possessions 79.8
Effective Scoring Chances 84.5 81.8
% of Possessions with FLA ALA
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 28.6%
Player Fouled 23.4% 23.1%
Turnover 11.8% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken FLA ALA
Shot Blocked 6.6% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 34.4% 31.2%