NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FLA CONN
Points 69.0 85.4
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 45.4
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 21.9
Points From Free Throws 16.9 18.0
Shooting FLA CONN
Field Goals Made 23.3 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.9 61.3
Field Goal % 37.1% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 44.6 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.0% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 16.9 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.0 24.0
Free Throw % 73.2% 75.1%
Ball Control FLA CONN
Rebounds 36.1 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 10.9
Turnovers 8.7 8.0
Blocked Shots 4.2 5.0
Steals 5.0 5.5
Fouls 16.2 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FLA CONN
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 76.3 75.3
% of Possessions with FLA CONN
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 24.8%
Player Fouled 21.9% 22.3%
Turnover 11.9% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken FLA CONN
Shot Blocked 8.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 31.7%