NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UTA
Points 71.2 79.1
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 26.3
Points From Free Throws 19.4 16.8
Shooting UCSB UTA
Field Goals Made 23.2 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 51.1 58.2
Field Goal % 45.5% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 33.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.4 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 19.4 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.9 22.8
Free Throw % 75.0% 73.6%
Ball Control UCSB UTA
Rebounds 32.1 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 10.0
Turnovers 13.8 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.5
Steals 5.1 7.2
Fouls 17.6 19.3

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UTA
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 72.4
% of Possessions with UCSB UTA
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 39.1%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 29.9%
Player Fouled 26.3% 24.0%
Turnover 18.9% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UTA
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 28.6%