NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB SUU
Points 77.3 74.6
Total Points   151.9
Points From 2-Pointers 48.9 40.9
Points From 3-Pointers 13.4 18.7
Points From Free Throws 15.0 15.0
Shooting UCSB SUU
Field Goals Made 28.9 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 59.7
Field Goal % 51.0% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 24.5 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.5 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 13.0 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 15.0 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 21.0
Free Throw % 75.0% 71.3%
Ball Control UCSB SUU
Rebounds 36.3 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.4
Turnovers 11.7 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.8
Steals 4.9 6.1
Fouls 16.9 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: S Utah

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB SUU
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 72.3
% of Possessions with UCSB SUU
2 Point Attempt 53.4% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 15.9% 25.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 23.3%
Turnover 16.2% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB SUU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 23.1%