NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB CSF
Points 69.5 68.9
Total Points   138.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 18.8
Points From Free Throws 16.5 14.4
Shooting UCSB CSF
Field Goals Made 23.8 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.1 54.9
Field Goal % 46.6% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 50.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 16.5 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 20.3
Free Throw % 75.0% 71.1%
Ball Control UCSB CSF
Rebounds 34.2 30.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 7.1
Turnovers 12.0 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.8
Steals 4.5 6.5
Fouls 16.1 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB CSF
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.5 67.1
% of Possessions with UCSB CSF
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 25.2%
Player Fouled 24.0% 23.3%
Turnover 17.2% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB CSF
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 20.7%