NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL SCU
Points 74.4 76.9
Total Points   151.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 24.2
Points From Free Throws 16.3 13.7
Shooting CAL SCU
Field Goals Made 25.2 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 61.6
Field Goal % 40.8% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.4 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 16.3 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 19.7
Free Throw % 73.2% 69.6%
Ball Control CAL SCU
Rebounds 36.1 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 11.1
Turnovers 8.3 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.7
Steals 6.0 3.7
Fouls 15.4 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Santa Clara

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL SCU
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 75.1 74.1
% of Possessions with CAL SCU
2 Point Attempt 43.0% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 27.4%
Player Fouled 22.0% 20.9%
Turnover 11.3% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL SCU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 29.7%