NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL ASU
Points 73.9 71.5
Total Points   145.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 27.5 20.7
Points From Free Throws 14.2 13.9
Shooting CAL ASU
Field Goals Made 25.3 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 60.1
Field Goal % 41.3% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.3 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 14.2 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 21.3
Free Throw % 73.2% 65.3%
Ball Control CAL ASU
Rebounds 41.9 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 31.7 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 7.5
Turnovers 11.4 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.8
Steals 5.0 6.5
Fouls 15.3 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL ASU
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 73.0
% of Possessions with CAL ASU
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 26.9%
Player Fouled 19.5% 20.6%
Turnover 15.4% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL ASU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 19.2%