NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL USC
Points 73.4 78.1
Total Points   151.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.4 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 30.1 23.7
Points From Free Throws 13.9 14.7
Shooting CAL USC
Field Goals Made 24.7 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 62.9 60.4
Field Goal % 39.3% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 28.1 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 13.9 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 21.1
Free Throw % 73.2% 69.5%
Ball Control CAL USC
Rebounds 38.1 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 9.3
Turnovers 11.2 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.1
Steals 5.9 6.2
Fouls 15.3 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL USC
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.2 73.3
% of Possessions with CAL USC
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.1% 25.3%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.6%
Turnover 15.1% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL USC
Shot Blocked 8.6% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 25.6%