NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MARQ WIS
Points 78.5 73.1
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 26.1 25.2
Points From Free Throws 10.9 12.8
Shooting MARQ WIS
Field Goals Made 29.4 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 58.7
Field Goal % 53.0% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 33.6 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 61.7% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.7% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 10.9 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 17.1
Free Throw % 68.8% 75.1%
Ball Control MARQ WIS
Rebounds 29.9 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 10.7
Turnovers 9.7 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.0 1.6
Steals 5.9 5.6
Fouls 14.5 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MARQ WIS
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 69.2
% of Possessions with MARQ WIS
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 29.7%
Player Fouled 19.7% 21.0%
Turnover 14.0% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MARQ WIS
Shot Blocked 2.9% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 30.7%