NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM UAB
Points 67.7 77.9
Total Points   145.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 18.2
Points From Free Throws 13.6 19.4
Shooting USM UAB
Field Goals Made 23.8 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 59.1
Field Goal % 40.8% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 13.6 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 26.2
Free Throw % 70.5% 74.3%
Ball Control USM UAB
Rebounds 33.5 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 12.4
Turnovers 11.4 9.8
Blocked Shots 5.3 3.8
Steals 6.1 7.5
Fouls 17.0 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM UAB
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 74.5
% of Possessions with USM UAB
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 20.2%
Player Fouled 19.3% 23.7%
Turnover 15.9% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM UAB
Shot Blocked 6.5% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 34.1%