NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNTC MTST
Points 65.3 77.5
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 29.9
Points From Free Throws 11.9 10.2
Shooting TNTC MTST
Field Goals Made 24.1 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 57.4
Field Goal % 45.4% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 14.1
Free Throw % 69.5% 72.4%
Ball Control TNTC MTST
Rebounds 30.7 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 5.9
Turnovers 12.5 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.5
Steals 4.5 7.9
Fouls 13.8 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNTC MTST
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 65.9
% of Possessions with TNTC MTST
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 20.8% 33.0%
Player Fouled 21.7% 19.7%
Turnover 17.8% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNTC MTST
Shot Blocked 4.5% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 17.9% 19.1%