NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORU SDAK
Points 81.0 75.6
Total Points   156.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 31.0 24.4
Points From Free Throws 11.9 13.9
Shooting ORU SDAK
Field Goals Made 29.3 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.5 59.7
Field Goal % 46.2% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.8 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 11.9 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 18.2
Free Throw % 77.1% 76.4%
Ball Control ORU SDAK
Rebounds 34.0 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.0
Turnovers 6.5 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.5 1.2
Steals 5.1 2.7
Fouls 15.4 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: South Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORU SDAK
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 70.5
% of Possessions with ORU SDAK
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.5% 25.0%
Player Fouled 17.3% 21.6%
Turnover 9.1% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 3.7% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORU SDAK
Shot Blocked 2.1% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 25.7%