NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORU HCU
Points 84.9 69.8
Total Points   154.7
Points From 2-Pointers 45.1 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 15.1
Points From Free Throws 12.0 14.5
Shooting ORU HCU
Field Goals Made 31.8 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 60.7
Field Goal % 49.9% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 45.1
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 44.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 12.0 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 22.6
Free Throw % 77.1% 64.1%
Ball Control ORU HCU
Rebounds 36.5 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 11.7
Turnovers 8.1 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 1.9
Steals 5.8 4.3
Fouls 15.8 11.3

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORU HCU
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 74.3
% of Possessions with ORU HCU
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 52.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 18.1%
Player Fouled 15.4% 21.6%
Turnover 11.0% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORU HCU
Shot Blocked 3.2% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 29.2%