NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM USA
Points 73.3 72.4
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 24.0
Points From Free Throws 15.4 13.1
Shooting USM USA
Field Goals Made 26.0 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 59.8
Field Goal % 45.1% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 15.4 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 17.5
Free Throw % 70.5% 74.7%
Ball Control USM USA
Rebounds 38.8 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 10.4
Blocked Shots 5.6 2.2
Steals 6.4 7.0
Fouls 14.2 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM USA
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 69.4
% of Possessions with USM USA
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 25.8%
Player Fouled 20.3% 19.5%
Turnover 15.4% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM USA
Shot Blocked 3.8% 9.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 19.5%