NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNTC TNST
Points 65.5 71.5
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 19.9
Points From Free Throws 14.2 13.3
Shooting TNTC TNST
Field Goals Made 22.8 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.2 55.6
Field Goal % 43.7% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 14.2 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 17.4
Free Throw % 69.5% 76.1%
Ball Control TNTC TNST
Rebounds 30.4 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 8.1
Turnovers 12.1 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.7
Steals 5.4 6.5
Fouls 14.1 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNTC TNST
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 66.4
% of Possessions with TNTC TNST
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 25.5%
Player Fouled 24.0% 20.1%
Turnover 17.3% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNTC TNST
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 25.2%