NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MINN MSST
Points 69.9 75.1
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 42.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 20.7
Points From Free Throws 12.7 12.5
Shooting MINN MSST
Field Goals Made 24.9 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 58.5
Field Goal % 45.5% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.0 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 12.7 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 19.0
Free Throw % 67.9% 65.5%
Ball Control MINN MSST
Rebounds 31.3 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 11.4
Turnovers 11.9 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.1
Steals 6.0 8.2
Fouls 14.1 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MINN MSST
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 70.4
% of Possessions with MINN MSST
2 Point Attempt 39.0% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 23.0%
Player Fouled 20.7% 20.1%
Turnover 17.1% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MINN MSST
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 33.3%