NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB MVSU
Points 77.5 66.1
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 28.2 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 30.9 16.5
Points From Free Throws 18.4 11.9
Shooting ARPB MVSU
Field Goals Made 24.4 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 52.1 58.7
Field Goal % 46.8% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.1 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 26.5 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 40.2% 28.1%
Free Throws Made 18.4 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 18.1
Free Throw % 75.0% 66.0%
Ball Control ARPB MVSU
Rebounds 34.3 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 10.6
Turnovers 11.3 11.3
Blocked Shots 1.3 2.6
Steals 5.5 6.5
Fouls 14.9 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +1.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB MVSU
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 70.7
% of Possessions with ARPB MVSU
2 Point Attempt 33.4% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 23.7%
Player Fouled 23.2% 20.9%
Turnover 15.9% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB MVSU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 27.9%