NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB KSU
Points 64.7 89.3
Total Points   154.0
Points From 2-Pointers 24.2 43.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.3 26.2
Points From Free Throws 16.2 19.1
Shooting ARPB KSU
Field Goals Made 20.2 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 60.0
Field Goal % 34.9% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made 12.1 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 38.7% 67.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 26.5 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 16.2 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 26.6
Free Throw % 75.0% 71.9%
Ball Control ARPB KSU
Rebounds 27.6 46.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.6 33.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 13.2
Turnovers 11.2 10.4
Blocked Shots 1.3 4.6
Steals 5.2 5.5
Fouls 17.7 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB KSU
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 77.2
% of Possessions with ARPB KSU
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 37.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 31.1%
Player Fouled 21.9% 23.8%
Turnover 15.0% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB KSU
Shot Blocked 7.6% 2.4%
Offensive Rebound 17.3% 39.1%