NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FIU NCST
Points 63.5 86.8
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 44.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 24.8
Points From Free Throws 9.8 17.2
Shooting FIU NCST
Field Goals Made 23.0 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 58.9
Field Goal % 38.5% 52.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 45.3%
Free Throws Made 9.8 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 23.7
Free Throw % 65.0% 72.6%
Ball Control FIU NCST
Rebounds 29.0 42.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.2 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 11.7
Turnovers 12.9 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.2
Steals 6.2 7.1
Fouls 15.7 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FIU NCST
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 73.6
% of Possessions with FIU NCST
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 21.2%
Player Fouled 17.6% 21.5%
Turnover 17.7% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FIU NCST
Shot Blocked 7.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 36.7%